Four is the Magic Number ⋆ An Old International

Four is the Magic Number

The biggest sporting event in June/July 2014 saw Germany emerging as worthy winners. Worthy, because their development over the past decade has been very positive. The team has evolved enormously since the exit of the group stages of the Euro 2004 in Portugal. This was Germany’s 4th title and if certain criteria are met, there’ll be another World Cup win within the next quarter century.

Nothing is as unpredictable as a game of football. How often have the favourites lost to teams perceived as minnows in the course of the game’s history? Yet, most often the tag of favourite has been attached to the team mostly by the media and a fan base willing to believe. This is no better exemplified in England’s history. Particularly, the game against Hungary in 1953 turned England’s world upside down as one newspaper has put it.

However, there are rules that seem to apply to Germany’s trajectory through football history since 1954. The following is an attempt to predict Germany’s next World Cup.

The Location

It has been an established rule until this year that a European team cannot win the World Cup in the Americas. The history of the tournament supports this argument. There have been eight world championship tournaments so far played out in the Americas: 1930 in Uruguay, 1950 Brazil, 1962 Chile, 1970 Mexico, 1978 Argentina, 1986 Mexico, 1994 USA and 2014 again Brazil.

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